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November 4, 2004

Chafee's Lost One Way or Another

I don't know whether it'll be a comfort to Kathryn Lopez, but I don't think Republicans will have to put up with Lincoln Chafee as a Senator in their party for the entirety of Bush's term. One possible occurrence would be if Chafee put his "symbolic protest" over his constituents' interest in preserving at least the one lone representative whom they have in the majority party:

Republican Sen. Lincoln Chafee said he would consider switching parties if President Bush is re-elected.

"I'm not ruling it out," Chafee told The Providence Journal.

Chafee, known for moderate views that often run counter to the Bush administration, also said he cast a write-in vote for Bush's father, George H.W. Bush, in Tuesday's election. He said it was a "symbolic protest."

There are folks who'll suggest that, whatever Chafee is, he's a breath of fresh air in that he allows himself be guided by principle rather than politics. I'm not sure that's the case; Chafee's probably increasingly suspicious that he can't hold his seat through the next election as a Republican, whether the ax falls in the primaries or the general election. A party switch, which isn't obviously to the Democrats' benefit politicswise, may be the only way for him to save his job.

And as I've long been saying, a Chafee with a D. after his name would allow me to fulfill my moral obligation to vote against him in '06 while still enabling me voting Republican.

Posted by Justin Katz at November 4, 2004 8:42 AM
Rhode Island
Comments

To put it concisely: I'm with you.

Posted by: Marc Comtois at November 4, 2004 10:54 AM

I actually had the Chafee story in the ProJo open in my browser to post about today, I'll link this when I get to posting it.

Chafee won't officially switch parties, but could pull a Jeffords (in which case you and Marc could fulfill your moral obligations).

As for his ouster, though, I really can't think of one scenario where Rhode Island would elect someone to Chafee's right. Even if he lost the primary, the Democrat would roll to victory in the general.

Posted by: Bil at November 4, 2004 1:18 PM

Maintaining the pattern: Bil, I agree with you.

Posted by: Marc Comtois at November 4, 2004 2:53 PM

As a Senator mainly concerned about his reelection, Chafee has shown time and again that- when up against the proposals of Bush's conservative partners in the GOP -he usually stands with the perspective of his liberal constituents while adhering to fiscal restraint. This, combined with his father's strong legacy, will ensure both his popularity among Rhode Islanders (which is strong among Democrats, the only political constituency that holds power in RI) and his value as a swing voter to both the minority Democrats and majority Republicans in the Senate. Therefore, barring a contest with Rep. Kennedy or Langevin, Chafee will most likely face nominal electoral opposition. This includes the primary, despite the immature rantings of Mayor Laffey, because Chafee represents the moderate tendencies of the hollow state GOP and they desperately want to hang on to their sole seat in the state's Congressional delegation. The only way Chafee would probably defect to the Dems is if the GOP makes the same mistake with him that they made in 2002 with Jeffords: ignoring him.

Posted by: Mike Philbin at January 31, 2005 4:44 PM