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November 3, 2004

Shocking No Matter the Outcome

I'm a bit astonished that the country's still this divided. At this moment, C-SPAN has Bush with 246 and Kerry with 196 and undeclared states as follows (leaving out Alaska [Bush] and Hawaii [Kerry]):

New Hampshire: Bush down 2%
Ohio: Bush up 3%
Michigan: Bush down 3%
Wisconsin: Bush down 1%
Minnesota: Bush down 7%
Iowa: Bush down 1%
New Mexico: Bush up 4%
Nevada: Bush down 1%
Washington: Bush down 5%

If counting were declared over now, Bush would win with 274 electoral college votes. But any one of these states could flip.

(Incidentally, I notice that C-SPAN called Cali before a single precinct was listed. At this moment, those 55 EC votes come down to a span of merely 7%, with only 14% of precincts reporting... ugh.)

Posted by Justin Katz at November 3, 2004 12:43 AM

It is sad. The media will call a state for Kerry even though it is not within the margin of error, but because they desire a Kerry win so much they will wait until the last minute to call a state for Bush. @10,000 vote difference in New Hampshire with 5% of the precincts left to count in a normally Republican state. A New Hampshire flip would be so rich. The same with California, only 54% of the precincts counted, and there's just a 450,000 vote difference. Granted that state is traditionally Democrat, and I don't know what the raw count is for that 46% of the precincts left to count, but wouldn't a flip there be so rich too!

Posted by: smmtheory at November 3, 2004 2:41 AM

This divided? Look, friend: In 2000, Gore won the popular vote by about a half-million votes. This year, Bush wins the popular vote by about 3.5 million votes. That's a 700% increase (I think, @ 6:30 a.m.) in the popular vote margin -- shifted from the Democrat to the Republican -- in 4 years. Don't miss the forest for the trees.

Posted by: ELC at November 3, 2004 6:27 AM

I've long held that California's outrageously huge electoral vote total--essentially made so by the number of non-citizens living in its borders--is a scandal. I can't imagine the Founders, or any rational person setting up a Republic, would have thought it sensible to include a state with eight or ten times the electoral heft of most any other. It's a screaming injustice.

Posted by: Sage at November 3, 2004 6:54 AM

I was going crazy last night in New Mexico. Bush was holding a steady lead of 20,000-30,000 votes over Kerry but the powers that be refused to call NM for Bush. Why? Because there was a discrepancy in the voter turn out. Seemed more people voted in 2000 than in this election and something was surely wrong.
Finally, around 4:00 pm MST this afternoon, the News Teams in NM called NM for Bush with about a 12,000 vote lead. Still haven't heard anything about the discrepancy in voters but in NM nothing surprizes me anymore (even the 4 inches of snow last weekend). Except maybe the fact that NM voted for a Republican President.
I do have to give Sen. Kerry a lot of credit for conceding the election without a long, drawn out legal battle. In NM alone, aside from the local attorney's asked to stand by (my Husband included), there were 160 Democrat party attorneys and 80 Republicans from the outside, just in case.
I am so relieved that the battle is over, we have so many more important issues to battle at this point in time than who won the White House.
Cheers, Kitty

Posted by: K. Mason at November 3, 2004 10:05 PM