Hi.

"The amazing thing is that the terrorists hope to gain by releasing that video."

Of course they will gain. In the Muslim world, the Ummah, this stuff is candy. It will win them recruits.

That is infinitely more important than whether some infidels get all offended. After all, they are not planning for us to be around forever anyway. They are fighting not for better terms, but so that we will be no more.

And to a good degree, they are right about where things are heading. I just learned today that Australian fertility is down to 1.75. I actually have a recent book on Australia's population issues, and it tap-danced around not mention that figure. Europe is going away too, and being replaced by Eurabia. So who cares about the opinions of people who simply aren't going to be there?

Sure, jihadis exploit Western folly in every way, as by blaming the latest Muslim beheading on something the Americans seem willing to beat themselves up over. But that's opportunism. Gaining support in the ummah, winning recruits and continuing jihad - that's fundamental.

Hello David,

I agree with you about the hazards indicated by demographic trends, and that these videos might gain some recruits for the terrorist organizations. However, it seems to me that the thing that most threatens the seemingly inevitable long-term advantage for the Islamicists is U.S. and Allied persistence. They can gain battalions of recruits, but if their means of attracting them also steel Western resolve — in large part by proving that the problem won't go away or even stay put — then they are gaining little more than cannon fodder.

I wouldn't be surprised if their actions are on the cusp of inspiring a stronger response to the demographic trends in the West, to boot.

Hello Justin.

(snipped stuff we agree on - a lot as usual)

"They can gain battalions of recruits, but if their means of attracting them also steel Western resolve - in large part by proving that the problem won't go away or even stay put - then they are gaining little more than cannon fodder."

The need now is for more recruitment, more jihadis. If there were enough to grab all the low-hanging fruit around the world, from the point of view of militant Islam, global terrorism wouldn't be down.

Besides, slighting your recruitment and support-building on the ground that your new troops will be nothing but cannon fodder is a counsel of despair - and our terrorist enemies are not despairing, they are big optimists.

And, there may be a difference between an instance of atrocity, which may be met by a Spanish surrender or may stimulate a strong response, which America is leading, and the grinding effect of terrorism in the long run.

The jihadis have faith in the latter, as proved by their seemingly endless campaign against Israel. And the results are ambiguous, but reasonably encouraging. There have been lots and lots of unreciprocated concessions, and Muslim breaches of faith do not forfeit the gains won by false promises to desist. Also, endless terror has I believe contributed to the world consensus that Jewish lives don't count.

One can see in Falluja, atrocity set up a conflict where the Americans had to act decisively or in effect be beaten, and they promised to. But, time dragged on, the time of decision passed, and I think Ralph Peters is right about the outcome.
http://www.nypost.com/postopinion/opedcolumnists/20722.htm
So, whose side is time really on?

The cost would perhaps be too high if atrocities had the effect of drawing us together to fight this evil. But if that's happening, I want to see it but I don't. In Australia and America, opposition parties have become amazingly irresponsible. On a personal level, this war has put such a chasm between me and friends I've known most of my life that we can scarcely even meet any more, and the breach is growing wider, not healing. If others are seeing the divisions that opened up after 11 September, 2001 and 12 October, 2002 healing, I have not heard any happy stories of reconciliation. From top to bottom, I do not see a growing sense that we are all in this together to the finish.

"I wouldn't be surprised if their actions are on the cusp of inspiring a stronger response to the demographic trends in the West, to boot."

I hope so, and if it is so may the change come speedily, in our own day.

David,

I'll probably comment more tomorrow, but I wanted to note one thing before I head off to bed and forget it. You write:

"...the breach is growing wider, not healing. If others are seeing the divisions that opened up after 11 September, 2001 and 12 October, 2002 healing, I have not heard any happy stories of reconciliation."

What I've seen happening, mainly, and perhaps a major contributor to the widening, is that fewer and fewer people of good will are able to remain on the Left. The chasm isn't two equal bodies moving apart, in other words, but the edges of one wearing away, leaving an increasingly extreme, overall, group.

Oh sure, plenty still support Kerry in polls, and plenty will certainly vote for him. However, just from personal experience here in ultra-liberal Rhode Island, I can tell you that those poll answers and those votes are little more than an emotional reflex. That emotional reflex is not, however, so ingrained as to resist all emotional pull in the other direction.

"Prayers go out for Nick Berg and his family, as well as all of the other missing in Iraq and all of those helping the nation to rebuild. Their sacrifices and risks will not have been in vain."

I should have said before: the main person affected by this was obviously Nick Berg, and after that his family. May the heart of this good man weight lighter than a feather now, may divine judgment and mercy favor him in every way, and may he spend eternity in paradise. Also, may the grief of his family be eased, as completely as possible this side of forgetfulness, permanently, and soon.

--

Justin, thanks for the note. I'll await any other comments you may have with interest.

David,

Sorry to have delayed in responding. Events have eaten my time. In a nutshell, what I think I was going to suggest is that terrorists can misplay the cards that Western divisions grant them. Were that split to come to a head, the terrorists' long-term prospects would depend largely on which Western side won.

It is in their interests not to make clear the foolishness of the Western Left, and given the terrorists' extremism and the Left's delusions, that's a fine line to walk. For example, to the extent that the Nick Berg murder, in context with surrounding events, harmed the credibility of the media, the terrorists' took a hit in one of their most effective weapons.

I guess time will tell. There are far too many variables to make more than general predictions.