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One-Sided Zero Tolerance for Intelligence Failure
09/24/2003

This hasn't yet become a big deal, so I don't want to act as if it has, but considering war critics' zero-tolerance for pre-war intelligence mistakes from the Bush administration — whereby it is almost irrelevant that nobody really questioned whether Hussein had WMDs — this is worthy of note:

A key claim that undermined the case for war against Saddam Hussein was dropped from the Government's Iraq dossier at the last minute after the intervention of Tony Blair's chief of staff.

John Scarlett, the chairman of the Joint Intelligence Committee, today admitted that he had made the crucial change on the "prompting" of Jonathan Powell, the Prime Minister's most senior aide.

The claim, that Iraq was more likely to use chemical and biological weapons defensively rather than offensively, was cut out of the dossier the day before it was sent to the printers, the Hutton Inquiry heard.

Put aside the fact that this "key claim" was mentioned once on page 19 of the dossier. The fact of the matter is that the claim proved incorrect: Saddam didn't use WMDs defensively (perhaps because they were all hidden or dispersed).

Of course, deception is wrong even if it turns out to have had post facto justification. However, this ought to work both ways so that (possibly) being wrong isn't presented, post facto, as deception.

(For the record, the above doesn't sound like deception to me. Assertions notwithstanding, this wasn't a "key claim that undermined the case for war," and therefore removing it doesn't rise above the level of a judgment call — one that turned out to have been correct.)

Posted by Justin Katz @ 09:58 PM EST